The navy takeover in Niger has upended years of Western counterterrorism efforts in West Africa and now poses wrenching new challenges for the Biden administration’s battle in opposition to Islamist militants on the continent.
American-led efforts to degrade terrorist networks world wide have largely succeeded in longtime jihadist scorching spots like Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. Not so in Africa, particularly within the Sahel, the huge, semiarid area south of the Sahara the place teams linked to Al Qaeda and the Islamic State are gaining floor at an alarming tempo.
Niger, an impoverished nation of 25 million folks that’s almost twice the dimensions of Texas, has just lately been the exception to that development.
Terrorist assaults in opposition to civilians there decreased by 49 p.c this yr, largely due to the two,600 French and American troops coaching and helping Nigerien forces and a multipronged counterinsurgency technique by the deposed president, Mohamed Bazoum, analysts say. Niger has slowed, however not stopped, a wave of extremists pushing south to coastal states.
Now all that may very well be in jeopardy if a regional battle breaks out or the junta orders the Western forcesincluding 1,100 American troops, to depart and three U.S. drone bases — together with one operated by the C.I.A. — to be shuttered.
Western-led navy operations provide no silver bullet in opposition to Islamist militancy within the Sahel, now the epicenter of world militancy. The previous decade of French-led operations within the area, involving 1000’s of troops, did not cease 1000’s of assaults.
Even so, a safety vacuum in Niger may embolden the militants to ramp up propaganda, enhance recruitment of native and even overseas fighters, set up mini-states in distant areas, and plot assaults in opposition to Western nations. Eradicating the comparatively small American presence would make it more durable for navy analysts to determine and rapidly disrupt threats as they emerge, U.S. officers stated.
It may additionally open the door to Russian affect in Niger within the type of the Kremlin-backed Wagner non-public navy firm, which already has a presence in neighboring Mali, U.S. officers say.
“The U.S. pulling out of Niger and shutting its drone bases can be a devastating blow to Western counterterrorism efforts within the Sahel,” stated Colin P. Clarke, a counterterrorism analyst on the Soufan Group, a safety consulting agency based mostly in New York.
The stakes within the battle are rising quick. Tens of 1000’s of individuals have died violently, and three.3 million have fled their properties, over the previous decade in Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, which adjoin one another in West Africa. In two of them, the scenario is quickly worsening. The loss of life toll in Mali doubled final yr to about 5,000, whereas in Burkina Faso it rose 80 p.c to 4,000, based on the Armed Battle Location & Occasion Knowledge Venture. On Tuesday, 17 Nigerien troopers had been killed and 20 wounded in an ambush by armed insurgents in southwestern Niger.
The violence is spreading from these three landlocked nations towards wealthier ones alongside the coast of the Gulf of Guinea. Militants from Burkina Faso have carried out assaults in northern Togo and Benin.
Niger can be battling a separate Islamic State affiliate within the Lake Chad Basin, within the nation’s southeast.
“Niger has been this barrier in opposition to terrorist teams for coastal nations,” stated Ouhoumoudou Mahamadou, who was Niger’s prime minister till the coup. “With a weakened Niger, there’s little probability that this function will maintain.”
The Worldwide Disaster Group has warned that the violence may additionally unfold into Ivory Coast, one of many area’s financial powerhouses.
“All of the Gulf of Guinea nations are very fearful,” stated Pauline Bax, deputy director of the Africa program on the Worldwide Disaster Group. Amid the furor over the coup in Niger, and the potential for Wagner to discover a perch there, the areas’ Islamist teams are possible celebrating an opportunity to develop their maintain, she stated.
Niger has been a centerpiece of American efforts to fight surging Islamist militancy within the Sahel area for a decade, and has taken on better significance for the reason that coup in Mali.
President Barack Obama ordered the primary 100 American troops to Niger in February 2013 to assist arrange unarmed surveillance drone operations in Niamey, the capital, to assist a French-led operation combating Al Qaeda and affiliated fighters in Mali.
By 2018, the U.S. navy presence had grown to 800 troops and the Pentagon was placing the ending touches on a $110 million drone base in Agadez, in northern Niger, a significant growth of American navy firepower in Africa. The dangers of the rising mission had been laid naked in October 2017 when a terrorist ambush killed 4 American troopers, their interpreter and 4 Nigerien troopers.
Niger, nevertheless, remained the primary U.S. counterterrorism ally within the area below Mr. Bazoum, the nation’s former inside and overseas minister, who was elected in 2021 in Niger’s first peaceable switch of energy between two democratically elected presidents since independence.
American officers praised Mr. Bazoum’s technique, which used counterterrorism raids by American-trained commandos and a few degree of dialogue with native teams to deal with their grievances. Fewer folks had been killed in Niger within the first six months of this yr than within the first half of any yr since 2018, based on the armed battle venture.
For the reason that rebellion on July 26, France and the European Union have suspended some support to Niger. The U.S. secretary of state, Antony J. Blinken, has stated that American safety ties, price about $500 million since 2012, had been additionally in danger if the putsch was not reversed. The USA has suspended coaching and drone flights, and restricted its troops to bases. France has additionally suspended all joint operations with Niger’s navy.
With prospects for restoring Mr. Bazoum to energy showing dim, the Biden administration is weighing two fundamental choices, officers say. It may formally declare a coup in Niger, because the administration did when navy forces staged current takeovers in Mali and Burkina Faso, which might set off broader cuts in American support, together with navy help. Or Washington may cease wanting that designation, because it did with a navy takeover in Chad, and search an association with the junta to proceed counterterrorism cooperation.
To date, the scenario has been comparatively peaceable and has not compelled the administration’s hand. However the specter of navy intervention by the Financial Group of West African States, the regional bloc generally known as ECOWAS, and dwindling hopes of a diplomatic decision current the Biden administration with powerful decisions within the coming days.
U.S. options within the area are restricted, officers stated. The USA has performed coaching workouts in Mauritania, Ghana, Chad and elsewhere within the space. However none of these nations are as centrally positioned as Niger, or seem prone to settle for such a big American navy presence. “Niger is kind of a essential companion to us within the area,” Sabrina Singh, a Pentagon spokeswoman, stated on Tuesday.
The USA has primarily performed a supporting navy function within the Sahel to France, a former colonial energy. However the junta has severed navy ties with France, and the current occasions have highlighted the failure of France’s counterterrorism partnerships, observers say.
The navy takeover is an particularly arduous blow for Western pursuits in Niger as a result of democracy gave the impression to be taking root within the nation regardless of a historical past of coups and tried coups since independence from France in 1960.
One small consolation for the Biden administration, because it makes an attempt to stability its rejection of coups with its want to take care of a safety presence in Niger, is that the newest takeover appears to be pushed extra by private or factional variations somewhat than any ideology.
The gorgeous collapse of the Western-backed, democratic authorities in Niger has additionally revived a debate about whether or not the security-heavy U.S. strategy was flawed within the first place.
“We now have an over-militarized strategy to counterterrorism,” stated Alexander Noyes, a political scientist on the nonprofit RAND Company. “And that’s hurting us.”
American support to nations like Niger can be simpler if it prioritized assist for good governance — stronger, extra democratic establishments with much less corruption — over the availability of deadly help, like drones and Particular Forces, Mr. Noyes stated.
West African officers have warned that the Wagner mercenary group could transfer to fill the void if French troops depart, amid rumors {that a} Nigerien junta official met just lately with representatives from the paramilitary group in Mali, which has hosted about 1,500 Wagner operatives to battle off an Islamist insurgency.
Assaults in opposition to civilians in Mali have surged for the reason that group’s arrival, as have the variety of Malian refugees in neighboring nations.
U.S. officers say there isn’t any proof that Wagner helped instigate the navy takeover in Niger, however the group is clearly attempting to use it. “Be happy to name us anytime,” Wagner’s founder, Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, stated in an audio message geared toward Niger’s junta that was shared final week on Telegram channels related to the group.
“Niger was the final bastion of hope and safety within the Sahel,” stated J. Marcus Hicks, a retired two-star Air Drive common who headed American Particular Operations forces in Africa from 2017 to 2019. “The concept that we’d depart a vacuum for additional malign Russian affect can be an actual tragedy.”
