ASTANA, Kazakhstan — Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken got here to Central Asia to press his case that the area ought to maintain the road towards Russian efforts to hunt financial support as Moscow grapples with Western sanctions.
Inside hours of touchdown in Astana, the snow-draped capital of Kazakhstan, he acquired an indication that the USA had some leverage. The Kazakh president stood subsequent to Mr. Blinken within the blue-doomed presidential palace and thanked the Individuals for his or her assist of his nation’s “independence, territorial integrity and sovereignty.”
The president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, has not criticized Russia’s struggle, and neither have leaders of the 4 different Central Asian nations, former Soviet republics with decades-long ties with Moscow. However his pointed assertion steered that, after the invasion of Ukraine, additionally a former Soviet republic, there was concern that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia might attempt to seize components of their very own nations or encourage separatists.
Elements of northern Kazakhstan are inhabited largely by ethnic Russians and are seen by Russian nationalists as territory that ought to belong to Russia. So there’s concern that these Kazakh residents might fall sufferer to Mr. Putin’s logic that Moscow has an obligation to “shield” ethnic kin wherever they’re.
Mr. Blinken rapidly gave assurances, saying at a information convention later that the USA was a dedicated associate of the Central Asian nations and that “our assist for his or her independence and sovereignty, their territorial integrity, is actual.” His remarks got here after a bunch assembly with the overseas ministers of the 5 Central Asian nations.
Mr. Blinken’s go to to Kazakhstan was the primary by a Biden administration cupboard official to any Central Asian nation. It happens at an vital second in American efforts to rally nations to buttress Ukraine in preparation for its protection towards a broader Russian offensive anticipated this spring and for Kyiv’s personal potential navy push.
On the battlefield in jap Ukraine, nonetheless, the symbolism of Mr. Blinken’s push to assist Ukraine was overshadowed by what the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, described because the “an increasing number of troublesome” scenario for his troops combating to carry Bakhmut, an obliterated metropolis that holds symbolic significance for Russia because it struggles to point out some headway after navy setbacks.
Mr. Blinken’s conferences in Kazakhstan and a go to to Uzbekistan, which observe latest journeys to the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, by President Biden and Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen, are a vital a part of the American diplomatic efforts this winter. Gen. Mark A. Milley, the nation’s most senior navy adviser, on Tuesday addressed a Rome convention of navy chiefs from Africa, the place Russia has some allies. Common Milley will later head to Germany, the place he’ll meet with Ukrainian troops, Pentagon officers stated.
The go to to Central Asia is a strike towards Moscow within the coronary heart of what it considers its sphere of affect.
U.S. officers say they’re real looking about their diplomacy in Central Asia: The 5 nations — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan — preserve shut diplomatic, safety and financial ties to Russia in addition to to China, the opposite superpower rival to the USA and Russia’s strongest strategic associate.
However the Individuals hope not less than to encourage the international locations to withstand strain from Russia to offer it extra assist at a time when it’s struggling on the battlefield and Western allies consider highly effective weapon shipments might assist Ukraine make critical features this spring.
One sticking level: International locations in Central Asia say the USA must enormously enhance commerce ties and financial support if it hopes to counterbalance Russia and China.
Mr. Blinken additionally acknowledged on the information convention with the Kazakh overseas minister, Mukhtar Tileuberdi, that sanctions on Russia, Kazakhstan’s largest buying and selling associate, had had an “financial spillover impact.” He stated the U.S. authorities was issuing “licenses that make sense” for overseas firms to proceed conducting reliable commerce with Russia whereas “watching compliance with sanctions very intently.”
Penalties from the sanctions on Russia have rippled throughout Kazakhstan. When the USA, Europe and a few Asian nations first imposed them in February 2022, the Kazakh tenge, the native forex, fell 20 p.c. It has steadily climbed again to simply underneath its prewar worth.
After assembly the 5 overseas ministers, Mr. Blinken introduced an extra $20 million in U.S. funding for financial packages within the area, on prime of $25 million from final 12 months. He stated the USA would additionally give $5 million this 12 months to advertise “regional connectivity” by financial and vitality packages.
That may be a small sum in contrast with the quantity of commerce between the nations and Russia and China.
American officers insist that they don’t seem to be making an attempt to drive the nations to decide on allegiances however hope to take advantage of a weakening of Russian affect within the area that has been fueled partly by the struggle in Ukraine. With Russia pouring navy assets into Ukraine and coping with sanctions, it has centered much less on Central Asia. Officers within the area say they see an unraveling of a few of Moscow’s energy, each to the profit and to the occasional detriment of their governments.
Emil Joroev, a researcher at Crossroads Central Asia, a analysis group in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, stated Mr. Putin had labored laborious in latest months to shore up Moscow’s affect in Central Asia, visiting every of the 5 nations not less than as soon as.
However this, Mr. Joroev added, “gave a way of Putin being considerably determined” to point out he nonetheless had buddies, or not less than not enemies, when many international locations, notably in Europe, view him as a struggle legal.
“Putin has misplaced his magic,” Mr. Joroev stated, “however he nonetheless has a lot better leverage in these international locations than the U.S. does.”
Even Central Asian leaders who’ve benefited from Mr. Putin’s insurance policies voice skepticism over the struggle. Final summer season, Mr. Tokayev pushed again towards Mr. Putin whereas sharing a stage with him at an financial convention in St. Petersburg, declaring that Kazakhstan wouldn’t acknowledge the “quasi-state territories” that Russia was propping up in jap Ukraine.
That stunned many observers, since Mr. Putin had despatched navy assist to Mr. Tokayev months earlier, when road protests in Kazakhstan threatened to carry down the Kazakh chief.
Mr. Tokayev is the one one of many Central Asian leaders who now speaks with Mr. Zelensky, a senior Central Asian official stated, and Mr. Tokayev not too long ago pledged humanitarian support.
Kazakh diplomats have deflected criticism from Moscow of a undertaking within the ravaged Ukrainian metropolis of Bucha. The undertaking, known as the “yurt of invincibility” and arrange by non-public firms, consists of conventional nomadic constructions erected to offer Ukrainians Kazakh meals and tea, and a spot to cost digital gadgets, since Russian strikes knocked out energy and warmth.
The geopolitical quake and toll of the struggle in Ukraine are felt keenly h in Kazakhstan. About 200,000 Russians fleeing the draft have sought sanctuary right here previously 12 months. Outdoors of that, the nation has 3.5 million ethnic Russians and 250,000 ethnic Ukrainians, in a inhabitants of 19 million.
“Kazakhstan can not assist however contemplate the case of Russian coverage towards Ukraine, which, if Moscow succeeds, can also threaten Kazakhstan,” stated Arkady Dubnov, an skilled on Central Asia in Moscow.
Nonetheless, these international locations should not speeding straight into the arms of the Individuals.
The Kyrgyz authorities is stalling on signing a cooperation settlement with Washington after years of negotiations. That may change one scrapped in 2014 after Russian strain pressured the closing of a U.S. air base exterior Bishkek that had been set as much as gasoline warplanes flying over Afghanistan.
Kyrgyzstan is anxious that if it indicators, Russia might strike again by limiting the variety of Kyrgyz migrant employees who can work there.
Kazakh officers say the federal government has to steadiness pursuits with Russia, China and different highly effective nations.
Kazakhstan is the world’s largest landlocked nation, and it primarily depends on overland export routes by Russia and China to ship items to exterior markets. Oil makes up greater than 60 p.c of its exports — and it’s an trade wherein American vitality firms are deeply concerned and are desirous to increase.
The shock of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has accelerated Kazakhstan’s drive to develop transportation routes for oil and freight throughout the Caspian Sea, bypassing Russia, stated Peter Leonard, Central Asia editor for Eurasianet. And Kyrgyzstan revived a long-stalled plan final 12 months for a brand new railway by its territory to Uzbekistan and on to Europe that might curtail its dependence on Russia’s rail community.
“The Ukraine disaster has supercharged sweeping historic traits slightly than initiated them,” Mr. Leonard stated. Russian leaders, he added, “are counting on gravity to take care of their affect. They’re maybe complacent and conceited however really feel that even when Central Asia begins to wobble and strikes a bit exterior their orbit, it will not require a substantial amount of effort to pull them again in.”
Edward Wong reported from Astana, Kazakhstan, and Andrew Higgins from Warsaw. Valerie Hopkins contributed reporting from Moscow.
