A pair of labeled C.I.A. intelligence stories issued within the days forward of a significant Hamas assault on Israel warned a few potential escalation in violence however didn’t predict the advanced, multipronged assault that Hamas gunmen launched towards Israel days later, in accordance with U.S. officers.
The primary of the intelligence stories, dated Sept. 28, described the chance that Hamas would launch rockets into Israel over a interval of a number of days.
The second report, dated Oct. 5, constructed on the primary however was extra analytical.
The Oct. 5 report appeared in a every day C.I.A. abstract of intelligence that’s distributed broadly to policymakers and lawmakers, the officers stated. However intelligence officers didn’t transient both of the stories to President Biden or senior White Home officers. Nor did the C.I.A. spotlight the stories to White Home policymakers as being of specific significance, officers stated.
A number of U.S. officers, who spoke on the situation of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter, described the stories as routine, and just like different intelligence stories about the potential for Palestinian violence that have been written all year long.
One U.S. official accustomed to the Sept. 28 report stated it had language that warned of a doable escalation by Hamas by larger cross-border fireplace towards Israel from Gaza.
C.I.A. analysts often write stories on violence between Israeli forces and Palestinian militants within the West Financial institution, which has escalated sharply in current months. On the day the Oct. 5 report was disseminated, Hamas stated two of its members within the West Financial institution have been killed in a firefight with Israeli forces.
However the C.I.A. has lately put extra concentrate on the chance of violence within the Gaza Strip, as evidenced by the current company stories, which described how dismal financial circumstances in Gaza, the place Hamas holds sway. Additionally they stated the group’s rising frustration about Israel’s longstanding blockade of the territory may result in a resumption of border assaults.
C.I.A. and White Home officers stated they might not touch upon labeled paperwork.
Whereas the stories warned of potential rocket fireplace, they didn’t say that Hamas meant to make use of new techniques towards Israel, comparable to a floor incursion.
It’s unclear why Israeli intelligence companies and their American counterparts didn’t detect preparations by Hamas for the Oct. 7 assault. Israeli intelligence companies share quite a lot of intelligence from the Palestinian areas with their American counterparts.
The assault started with a big barrage of rockets. Hamas then launched the biggest and deadliest incursion into Israel in a long time, which left about 1,200 Israelis useless. Hamas gunmen are additionally holding about 150 hostages.
The failure to detect Hamas’s preparations has raised questions on whether or not the intelligence companies misjudged the group’s capabilities and intentions, or had diverted assets to monitoring different threats. Hamas can also have discovered methods to forestall intelligence companies from eavesdropping on their communications.
The stories have been primarily based on intelligence that the C.I.A. collected itself or acquired from associate providers, the officers stated, although they might not talk about the character of that intelligence. They have been written amid weeks of protests by younger males in Gaza.
For a few years, U.S. intelligence companies haven’t made Hamas or the Gaza Strip a prime precedence, in comparison with different threats that they’ve tracked way more intently, together with China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Al Qaeda and the Islamic State.
Yearly, U.S. intelligence companies challenge a report on main threats to international safety. The 2023 report highlighted the menace confronted by Israel from Iran, Hezbollah and “different companions and proxies,” with out naming them.
The final time Hamas was talked about within the annual report was 2017. Gaza has not been talked about since 2013.
Since William J. Burns grew to become director of the C.I.A. in 2021, he has warned, publicly and privately, that violence between Israelis and Palestinians may escalate, echoing feedback by different American officers who work within the area.
In remarks at Georgetown College in February, Mr. Burns recalled his function as a senior diplomat twenty years in the past through the Palestinian rebellion often known as the Second Intifada.
“What we’re seeing in the present day has a really sad resemblance to a few of these realities that we noticed then too,” he stated.
Extra lately, Mr. Burns has warned of a threat that Israel’s adversaries may see rising divisions inside Israeli society over the insurance policies of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as a possibility to step up their assaults towards the Jewish state.
Eric Schmitt contributed reporting.
