By George Monopatis
The idea of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD), though strongly linked with the Chilly Conflict period, can truly be traced again within the nineteenth century. To be extra particular, with the invention of the dynamite, Nobel, the inventor, mentioned “The day when two military corps can annihilate one another in a single second, all civilized nations, it’s to be hoped, will recoil from conflict and discharge their troops”1. This realization was a primary notion of MAD. These days, the time period is related to the lunatic interval throughout which two superpowers may destroy each other simply with the usage of nuclear weapons. This stability of terror may collapse instantly and detonate inflicting unparalleled destruction; a mutual annihilation able to remodeling the world as we all know it right into a nuclear wasteland. Nevertheless, even throughout the competitors between the West – NATO, and the East – the Warsaw Pact, smaller, standard powers may nonetheless fall prey to their very own MADness. The finger is pointed in the direction of Greece and Turkey: two Western neighbours, nonetheless members of NATO whose relationship has been been getting worse and worse. Absolutely, one wouldn’t be rational to count on tens of millions of casualties in a MAD situation confined to the 2 Mediterranean neighbours. Nonetheless, the implications should be dire and catastrophic for the every day lives of their folks, the economic system and defence inside nationwide and worldwide context.
The Nash equilibrium
Since time immemorial Greeks and Turks are contesting for hegemony within the neighbourhood of jap Mediterranean and the Aegean Archipelago with out anybody being ready to deal a decisive blow. After the Turkish invasion of Cyprus in 1974 the 2 nations have been introduced right into a stalemate. This example could also be nicely understood by way of the lens of the Nash equilibrium (within the verge of error one might add). In easy phrases, the Nash equilibrium is a state of affairs the place two gamers (states) have chosen a sure technique and no participant has the power to change its technique with a purpose to increase its personal anticipated payoff for a danger taken, whereas the opposite participant retains its technique unchanged. Nevertheless, if one participant manages to alter their technique, while the opposite doesn’t, then this can end in a zero-sum sport of various proportions, the place one participant wins on the expense of the opposite participant. In our case, Turkey’s technique since 1974 is to dispute Greece’s sovereignty and sovereign rights by continuing with actions sheltered by a veneer of false legalism.
The actions of Turkey, though at all times well-planned, are, nonetheless, actions that would result in conflict at any second. To offer just a few examples, firstly Ankara disputes Greece’s ipso facto and ab initio proper to measure its Continental Shelf and thus Unique Financial Zone from its islands’ baselines. Secondly, Turkey threatens Greece with Conflict (Casus Belli) within the occasion that the latter extends its territorial waters to 12n.m. (nautical miles). Then again, Greece has chosen the technique of countering any unlawful provocations by Ankara with the usage of worldwide regulation and alliances. Within the meantime, each nations are retaining robust armed forces as a deterrence, thus holding the equilibrium alive. Having mentioned that, in response to the Nash equilibrium each nations are sure to the technique they’ve chosen and neither appears to have the ability to considerably alter its personal whereas the opposite retains its current one. It’s fairly obvious that the equilibrium is an absurd one, a Pandora’s field able to open at any second and launch myriads of terrors, which can hang-out not solely the 2 belligerent events, however the entire area as nicely. Each nations have potent navy capabilities, which appears to be an element denying a decisive victory for both facet. Nevertheless, lately one of many gamers has been making an attempt to upset the equation and smash the aforementioned stability2.
The upset of the Equation and MAD
Regardless of the pandemic, Turkey retains violating the sovereign rights of Greece and its Continental Shelf in particular with its small flotilla of “Oruc Reis”, even reaching in shut proximity to the territorial waters of Greece and particularly Rhodes island and Kastelorizo3. It might be mentioned that Ankara is working in the direction of upgrading its technique from sporadic breaches to fixed infringements, in the identical method this has been occurring within the Greek airspace. If Turkey proceeds with drilling for oil inside the Greek Maritime Zone of the Continental Shelf, this can end in a zero sum sport the place Turkey will win in expense of Greece’s loss. If Greece, rightfully opts to defend its sovereign rights, with means together with the risk or use of drive, this can possible spark the graduation of conflict and the collapse of their preliminary methods forming the present Nash equilibrium. If this situation performs out each nations will face a sequence response of occasions various from a extreme blow on their navy capabilities, the outflow of populations and the lack of lives, to an financial catastrophe of their at present feeble economies, with their commerce interdependence appearing as a multiplier of the injury. The 2 belligerent states will possible give attention to concentrating on one another’s infrastructure. A number of days in the past, even nature itself gave an instance of how shut among the two nations’ infrastructure is. A single earthquake managed to wreck buildings each within the Greek island of Samos and the Turkish metropolis of Smyrna (Izmir). An instance of a goal could be the strengthened bridge of Bosporus with the intention of disrupting Turkey’s capability to assist to jap Thrace. Turkey then again may swiftly bombard Greece’s oil refineries.
In addition to the devastation that the belligerent nations will face, the disaster has the potential to trigger tectonic shifts at a world degree. To be extra particular, if the southeast wing of NATO had been to be dismantled, as two superficial allies shall be engaged in battle, the transatlantic establishment shall be compelled to behave and urge the alliance to re-evaluate its dogma regarding inner conflicts, tainting its status and legitimacy. Furthermore, it’s possible {that a} refugee downside will come up after the conflict, in context with the financial catastrophe that may come up. Final however not least, the credibility of the European Union shall be put at stake if it doesn’t assist a member of its personal throughout one in all its darkest hours.
In conclusion, the belief of this scaled-down MAD prospect is not going to be the one to carry tens of millions of casualties. It can, nonetheless, carry all of the underlying issues which lay very similar to mines between Greece, Turkey, the EU and NATO. On the finish of the day, what issues is the welfare of a nation’s inhabitants, together with belief in its authorities and armed forces in terms of their capability to guard rights, pursuits and lives. One shall not underestimate the psychological devastation corrupting a big community of worldwide relations.
1. https://www.thoughtco.com/history-of-the-nobel-prizes-1779779
2. https://www.globalfirepower.com
3. https://www.bbc.com/information/world-europe-54504123, https://www.reuters.com/article/turkey- greece-int-idUSKBN26X2E8 , https://www.aljazeera.com/information/2020/10/22/turkey-extends- exploration-in-disputed-mediterranean-waters
