At first, the coup in Niger resembled others which have roiled West Africa in recent times. On July 26, troopers detained Niger’s president at his house within the capital, Niamey. Hours later, they declared that they had seized energy. Overseas powers condemned the putsch however did nothing.
Then the coup took a unique course.
America and France threatened to chop ties with Niger, endangering a whole lot of thousands and thousands of {dollars} in support. The deposed president, Mohamed Bazoum, although detained, was capable of communicate with world leaders, obtain guests and publish defiant messages on social media.
Neighboring nations threatened to go to battle — some to scuttle the coup, and others to make sure its success.
The Financial Group of West African States, a regional bloc of nations generally known as ECOWAS, issued an ultimatum to the junta on July 30: Restore Mr. Bazoum to energy inside one week or face the results, together with attainable navy motion.
A day later, the neighboring nations of Mali and Burkina Faso leaped to the junta’s protection. In a joint assertion, they mentioned they might take into account any overseas intervention in Niger as a “declaration of battle” in opposition to them. (Guinea additionally supported Niger’s navy, however with out the specter of drive.)
European nations, led by France, which dominated Niger as a colony till 1960, started evacuating their residents from Niamey on Tuesday. America Embassy ready to evacuate workers. Each France and the USA suspended navy cooperation with Niger.
Niger’s coup has turn out to be a pink line for a lot of. However the saber-rattling has plunged the area into turmoil, exposing deep divisions. The coup leaders insist they’re going nowhere. With worries that the disaster may spill over right into a regional battle, the stakes are quickly rising.
Why does Niger matter?
If the coup succeeds, Niger would be the final domino to fall in an unbroken line of nations stretching throughout Africa, from the Atlantic to the Purple Sea, which might be dominated by navy juntas.
Democratically elected leaders are falling like bowling pins: Since 2020, three of Niger’s neighbors — Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea — have skilled 5 coups. Many within the West had pinned their hopes on Mr. Bazoum, a pleasant determine in a tough neighborhood.
Though Niger has an extended historical past of coups, Mr. Bazoum promised a democratic future. Elected in Niger’s first peaceable switch of energy in 2021, he advocated for ladies’ schooling and tried to scale back the nation’s birthrate, the very best on the planet.
After years of stagnation, the economic system was forecast to develop 7 % this yr. And Mr. Bazoum proved a steadfast accomplice to the USA, which has 1,100 troops and two drone bases in Niger; and to France, which has 1,500 troops based mostly there.
The alliance with the West helped Niger push again militants — fatalities from Islamist violence fell sharply final yr. However for causes that stay unclear, it might even have stoked tensions contained in the navy, contributing to final week’s coup.
What’s ECOWAS, and might it cease a coup?
West Africa’s strongest regional grouping, ECOWAS represents 15 nations with a mixed inhabitants of about 400 million individuals. Though based to spice up economies, ECOWAS has usually waded into regional conflicts.
Since 1990, its peacekeepers have intervened to assist quell rebellions, uphold cease-fires and drive out dictators. The newest mission was in Gambia in 2017, the place its troopers helped cease former President Yahya Jammeh from overturning an election he had misplaced.
Some need ECOWAS to emulate that instance in Niger. The bloc’s head, President Bola Tinubu of Nigeria, says that West Africa can’t afford extra coups and that ECOWAS must cease being a “toothless bulldog.”
“Tinubu is taking this Niger disaster personally,” mentioned Rahmane Idrissa, a researcher on the African Research Heart of Leiden College within the Netherlands. “This was a one-coup-too-many for him, and for ECOWAS.”
On Wednesday, Nigeria’s navy chief of workers, Christopher Musa, instructed Radio France Worldwide that if ordered, his forces had been able to deploy.
Nonetheless, many doubt that ECOWAS actually needs to go to battle over Niger. Gambia, the place the bloc final deployed, is the smallest nation on mainland Africa, with a weak military. Niger is twice the dimensions of France, and its battle-tested military has been skilled by American and European particular forces.
“We’ll see if ECOWAS can ratchet up strain any longer,” mentioned Cameron Hudson, an Africa analyst on the Heart for Strategic and Worldwide Research. “However I think that their bluff has been known as.”
The place is the president?
Mr. Bazoum seems to be trapped in a wierd limbo.
Sometimes, throughout coups, ousted leaders are compelled to flee or signal a proper resignation. Mr. Bazoum has achieved neither, as an alternative staying at house, the place he spoke with the U.S. secretary of state, Antony J. Blinken, and with President Emmanuel Macron of France. On Sunday, he welcomed the chief of Chad, Mahamat Déby, who later posted a smiling picture of the imprisoned president on social media.
Senior Nigerien diplomats, insisting that the coup could be reversed, nonetheless name Mr. Bazoum their boss.
“If this coup succeeds, will probably be a catastrophe,” Kiari Liman-Tinguiri, Niger’s ambassador to the USA, mentioned in an interview. “A catastrophe for Niger, for the area and for the world.”
However Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani, the self-declared coup chief, insists it’s going forward.
The top of Niger’s Presidential Guard for 12 years, Normal Tchiani till lately was in control of Mr. Bazoum’s safety. Why he determined to turn out to be the president’s jailer, and to grab energy, stays unclear.
However he says he won’t bow to worldwide strain. In a tv handle Wednesday evening, Normal Tchiani railed in opposition to “unlawful, unjust and inhuman” sanctions imposed by ECOWAS on Niger for the reason that coup. And he won’t reinstate Mr. Bazoum, he added.
Who advantages from the chaos?
The sight of coup supporters brandishing Russian flags in central Niamey, some chanting slogans in favor of President Vladimir V. Putin, stoked suspicions that the Kremlin had a hand within the coup.
In truth, there may be little proof to help that concept, specialists say. However that hasn’t prevented Russian officers from seeing Niger’s disaster as a significant alternative.
Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the Russian oligarch whose Wagner mercenary paramilitaries have been deployed to Mali, has pitched his providers to Niger’s coup leaders. On Wednesday, one traveled to Mali’s capital, Bamako, the place he met with Malian leaders and Wagner officers.
The opposite potential beneficiaries are the area’s Islamist militants. Because the coups in Mali and Burkina Faso, militants’ assaults on civilians in these nations have soared. However in Niger, they’ve dropped — a pattern that many worry may now be reversed.
If the coup succeeds, “it may present a big base, a sanctuary, to Wagner and the jihadists within the coronary heart of West Africa,” Mr. Liman-Tinguiri, the diplomat, mentioned. “This isn’t one other coup as common.”
Elian Peltier contributed reporting from Dakar, Senegal.